Every call, graded.
AiGoalBot writes down each next-goal call the moment it makes it — the side, the stated probability, the confidence tier and the exact model build that produced it. Once the match is over, the call is graded against what actually happened. This page is all of them. Nothing is excluded, and the misses are counted with the hits.
8.2%
of 4977 settled calls landed
A coin flip would have landed 7.5%. 1.10× better than chance
4977
Calls graded
410
Matches covered
8.2%
Realised hit rate
7.5%
Coin-flip baseline
Covering Jul 18, 2026 – Jul 28, 2026. Recalculated automatically.
How this is measured
The rule is fixed and strict
A call names one side. It lands only if the very next goal in the match belongs to that side and arrives within 10 minutes. If the other side scores first, it is a miss. If nobody scores in the window, it is a miss.
Goals the feed had not reported yet do not count
The data feed reports a goal 20–30 seconds after it is scored, while the match statistics it derives from update instantly. For those seconds a model can appear to predict a goal that has already been scored. So a goal only counts for a call if it arrives at least 2 minutes after that call was last made — the model is asked to see a goal coming, not to notice one that has just gone in. This rule alone removed the whole of the edge previously published here, and it is why the model is now trained to look 2 minutes ahead.
Why the baseline is 7%, not 50%
Most 10-minute windows contain no goal at all, and a call cannot land in a window where nothing happens. So the honest comparison is not a 50/50 guess between two teams — it is a coin flip that only pays out when a goal actually arrives. That baseline is computed from the very same windows shown here, never assumed.
Written before the fact
Each call is stamped with the build of the model that made it, and the model is retrained daily. That is what makes a graded call provable rather than merely claimed: it was recorded before the goal, by a model that had not seen the match.
Nothing in play
A call only appears here once its match is certainly finished. A graded call on a live match would give away the score, and this page is public.
By confidence tier
The star rating shown on the card, from a weak read to a strong one.
| Calls | Landed | Realised | Chance | Edge | Realised vs chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ | 1096 | 102 | 9.3% | 8.8% | 1.06× | |
| ★★ | 1002 | 80 | 8.0% | 7.0% | 1.13× | |
| ★★★ | 2879 | 228 | 7.9% | 7.1% | 1.11× |
By stated probability
The headline percentage the card showed at the time.
| Calls | Landed | Realised | Chance | Edge | Realised vs chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 20% | 1282 | 108 | 8.4% | 7.3% | 1.16× | |
| 20–25% | 1880 | 154 | 8.2% | 8.0% | 1.03× | |
| 25–30% | 1495 | 114 | 7.6% | 6.7% | 1.13× | |
| 30% and above | 320 | 34 | 10.6% | 8.9% | 1.19× |
By match phase
When in the match the call was made.
| Calls | Landed | Realised | Chance | Edge | Realised vs chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15' | 616 | 57 | 9.3% | 8.4% | 1.11× | |
| 15–30' | 654 | 56 | 8.6% | 8.4% | 1.02× | |
| 30–45' | 713 | 46 | 6.5% | 6.3% | 1.02× | |
| 45–60' | 1025 | 81 | 7.9% | 6.9% | 1.15× | |
| 60–75' | 806 | 65 | 8.1% | 7.6% | 1.07× | |
| 75'+ | 1157 | 104 | 9.0% | 7.6% | 1.18× |
Day by day
Every day of capture, in order. Small days swing hard — read the total, not the best one.
| Calls | Landed | Realised | Chance | Edge | Realised vs chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18 | 370 | 34 | 9.2% | 8.2% | 1.11× | |
| Jul 19 | 411 | 35 | 8.5% | 6.8% | 1.25× | |
| Jul 20 | 123 | 8 | 6.5% | 6.1% | 1.07× | |
| Jul 21 | 434 | 29 | 6.7% | 6.8% | 0.98×below chance | |
| Jul 22 | 597 | 47 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 1.00× | |
| Jul 23 | 815 | 69 | 8.5% | 8.0% | 1.06× | |
| Jul 24 | 294 | 25 | 8.5% | 6.3% | 1.35× | |
| Jul 25 | 916 | 71 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 0.99×below chance | |
| Jul 26 | 914 | 82 | 9.0% | 7.1% | 1.26× | |
| Jul 27 | 96 | 9 | 9.4% | 7.8% | 1.20× | |
| Jul 28 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 1.00× |
Rows marked below chance are ones where the model did worse than a coin flip. They are shown because a scorecard with the bad rows deleted would make the good ones worthless too.
The last 30 calls, named
Straight time order — no selection, no highlights reel. Whatever the model said last is what appears here.
| Match | Call | Called to score next | Confidence | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea v Western Sydney WanderersClub Friendlies · Jul 28 | 52' | Western Sydney Wanderers | 15% | Landedgoal after 8m 55s |
| Chelsea v Western Sydney WanderersClub Friendlies · Jul 28 | 49' | Chelsea | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Chelsea v Western Sydney WanderersClub Friendlies · Jul 28 | 41' | Chelsea | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Chelsea v Western Sydney WanderersClub Friendlies · Jul 28 | 14' | Western Sydney Wanderers | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Chelsea v Western Sydney WanderersClub Friendlies · Jul 28 | 4' | Western Sydney Wanderers | 15% | Missedother side scored |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 28 | 91' | Sport Recife | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 28 | 82' | Cuiabá | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Clube De Regatas Brasil v Vila Nova FCBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 64' | Vila Nova FC | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 57' | Sport Recife | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 54' | Sport Recife | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Clube De Regatas Brasil v Vila Nova FCBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 52' | Clube De Regatas Brasil | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Clube De Regatas Brasil v Vila Nova FCBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 46' | Vila Nova FC | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 46' | Sport Recife | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 41' | Sport Recife | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 27' | Cuiabá | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 21' | Cuiabá | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 19' | Cuiabá | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Clube De Regatas Brasil v Vila Nova FCBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 10' | Clube De Regatas Brasil | 15% | Landedgoal after 9m 4s |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 9' | Cuiabá | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Sport Recife v CuiabáBrasileirão Serie B · Jul 27 | 2' | Sport Recife | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| FC Botoșani v FC Rapid BucureștiSuperliga · Jul 27 | 72' | FC Botoșani | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| CSKA Sofia v Botev PlovdivParva Liga · Jul 27 | 88' | CSKA Sofia | 15% | Landedgoal after 2m 43s |
| Galatasaray v VeneziaClub Friendlies · Jul 27 | 89' | Galatasaray | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| FC Botoșani v FC Rapid BucureștiSuperliga · Jul 27 | 58' | FC Botoșani | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| CSKA Sofia v Botev PlovdivParva Liga · Jul 27 | 75' | CSKA Sofia | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| FC Botoșani v FC Rapid BucureștiSuperliga · Jul 27 | 55' | FC Botoșani | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Galatasaray v VeneziaClub Friendlies · Jul 27 | 77' | Venezia | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Galatasaray v VeneziaClub Friendlies · Jul 27 | 64' | Venezia | 14% | Landedgoal after 6m 17s |
| CSKA Sofia v Botev PlovdivParva Liga · Jul 27 | 49' | CSKA Sofia | 15% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
| Galatasaray v VeneziaClub Friendlies · Jul 27 | 54' | Galatasaray | 14% | Missedno goal in 10 min |
Read this with the caveats
- The sample is 4977 calls over 410 matches — enough to see the shape, not enough to settle a small bucket. A row with a few dozen calls can move several points on one goal.
- AiGoalBot is in closed beta and the model retrains daily, so the record mixes several builds. Each build's calls are graded only against matches it had not seen.
- This is a measurement of a model, not advice, and past accuracy does not predict future accuracy.